Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" by Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets is a book that connects the decision-making and probability concepts of poker to our everyday lives. Being a former professional poker pro, Annie Duke combines her own experiences with a plethora of academic literature to illustrate decision-making techniques for situations without complete information (it turns out that's most situations). The immediate analogy used is that you need to treat life more like poker and less like chess. Chess is transparent, both players see the board and the pieces of the entire match while upon review the loser of a match can discover exactly where they misplayed. Poker, on the other hand, is a game of incomplete information. Players do not know what cards are coming next nor what cards other players possess. To navigate these uncertainties, you first need to assess the situation and acknowledge the amount of luck involved to ultimately better your decision-making.

The book opens with one of the most infamous and talked about decisions in recent memory, Pete Carroll's decision to throw the ball at the end of Super Bowl XLIX. Of course, knowing the outcome of an interception costing the team the championship its easy to point fingers. Duke has the reader think about the play call in a more mathematical sense without saying if it was the right decision or not. Instead, she teaches you different aspects of decision making throughout the chapters only to revisit the situation in the concluding pages. With all your new found knowledge, you see the reasoning behind Carrolls decision.

Trailing by four, twenty seconds remaining, one timeout, second-and-goal at the Patriots one-yard line.

If a run is called the future outcomes are A. touchdown (Win) B. turnover/fumble (Lose) C. tackle short of goal line (timeout to stop the clock) D. offensive penalty E. defensive penalty.

If a throw is called A. touchdown (Win) B. turnover/interception (Lose) C. incomplete pass (clock is stopped) D. sack E.offensive penalty F. defensive penalty.

Choosing to pass most likely gives Seattle 3 total plays instead of 2 and Carroll is aware that an interception only has a 2-3% probability in this situation.

Later in the book, Duke goes on to explain the importance of what she calls "decision groups." Put simply, these groups are made up of people in your life you trust and who have some form of knowledge of the situation in which you are questioning. They act as a way to challenge our thinking and evaluate outcomes since humans have a tendency to be biased and overconfident in their own decisions. "On our own, we have just one viewpoint. That's our limitation as humans." There are 3 parts to the truth-seeking charter of decision groups:

1. A focus on accuracy, which rewards truth-seeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness within the group. 2. Accountability, for which members have advance notice.

3. Openness to a diversity of ideas.

Thinking in Bets does come with minor drawbacks. For example, if someone is suffering from anxiety adding the idea of luck and uncertainty to every situation might lead to overthinking and potentially shying away from opportunities due to fear of failure. I really enjoyed Duke's research and description on "backcasting" and "premortems." Both of these terms include envisioning yourself in the future and looking back at how you got there. With the use of academic literature she proves that instead of just looking forward, this technique is found to be more succesful at creating real positive change. Backcasting includes reviewing the past from end goal while premortems is you looking back from a failed state to see where you went wrong. This retrospective visualization encourages a proactive and strategic approach to goal setting and achievement.

I found this book extremely thought-provoking and highly recommend giving it a read. It is extremely rare for things to be 100% or 0% like we like to assume. This book helps give the reader tools to make better decisions when faced with uncertainties and to always seek others opinions so that you can see the whole picture.